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The Uncertainty Budget

MethodPrototype

You cannot eliminate uncertainty. You can stop hiding where it lives.

Purpose

Allocate uncertainty by source: factual, model, value, timing, authority, and reversibility.

Truth claim

Decision-structuring worksheet, not quantitative risk certification.

Does not measure

Actual risk exposure, actuarial probability, or regulatory compliance.

Interaction

Score and annotate uncertainties; receive research priorities and a decision threshold map.

Metric

6

uncertainty accounts

Related notes